Before dwelling into the topic that relates to climate change induced challenges for disaster managers, particularly for the Himalayan region, it becomes pertinent to put forth that the Himalayan arc is is vulnerable to multiple hazards that include earthquake, landslide, flash flood, forest fire, avalanche and drought, but then unlike other regions Uttarakhand Himalaya has not witnessed any major seismic activity since 1 September 1803 Garhwal Earthquake, and is located in the seismic gap of 1905 Kangara and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes. This enhances disaster risk in the region around Uttarakhand Himalaya by manifold.
From the perspective of a disaster manager, Uttarakhand Himalaya is faced with twin challenges.
Firstly, prolonged seismic quiescence has led to complacency, and both masses and government have become casual towards seismic safety, which is in fact the biggest threat not only for this region but also for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains extending up to the National Capital Region (NCR).
Secondly, largely due to their frequent occurrence, particularly during the monsoon period, the disaster management authorities seem to have diverted their entire attention towards landslide and flash flood management but in reality they are focused only on gathering information and quickly preparing incident reports related to rescue and relief efforts, rather than paying due attention towards prevention and mitigation.
The shifting sands of disaster
In the previous some years landslide and flash flood incidences have not remained confined to monsoon period. Devastating Varuavrat and Ramolsari landslides of 2003 and 2005 took place respectively in post- and pre-monsoon period. In the year 2021, Dhauliganga valley was flooded during winter season while the Kumaun region was devastated by landslides and flash floods in the month of October after the recession of the monsoon. In 2023 Joshimath witnessed ground subsidence at an alarmingly fast pace in the month of January.
Dwindling freshwater reserves
This change in the pattern of disasters is often attributed to climate change, whose real and mammoth but often ignored impact is on the freshwater reserves that are dwindling fast with the recession of glaciers. It needs to be appreciated that the water of the Himalayan rivers sustains people as also agricultural and industrial activities in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains and depleted water availability is to adversely affect electricity generation, drinking water availability and agro-industrial operations, besides having a negative impact on quality of life and sanitation for a large population of our nation.
Unpredictable Rainfall – A New Normal
Even though average rainfall may not have reduced significantly, both spatial and temporal distribution in the region has changed enormously, with heavy rainfall incidences becoming increasingly common. Together with this both winter and pre-monsoon rainfall have become less and erratic.
Winter rainfall in the region is often delayed and this results in reduced retention of snow in the higher reaches resulting in negative mass balance of glaciers. This has adverse impact on glacier health, groundwater recharge and productivity of horticultural crops that are deprived of the required chilling hours, and are subject to early flowering. Absence of pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormal heat and forest fires.
Soaring Temperatures – A Burning Issue
Erratic pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormally high temperatures not only in the plains but also in the higher elevations and this is often accompanied by forest fires. 2024 witnessed this all across, wherein day time temperatures crossed 40o C on several days, and normal life in almost all the districts was crippled by severe heat waves.
In June, Dehradun witnessed temperatures above 40oC for 11 consecutive days from June 9 to June 20. Meanwhile, in May, temperature in the city soared above 40oC on eight days.
Situation was abnormal even in the mountains, and on at least five occasions in May, the hill station of Mukteshwar in Nainital district recorded temperatures of nearly 30o C, the threshold of a heatwave in the hilly terrain. June has been the harshest for the town as it saw maximum temperature settling above 30o for 10 days and on June 15, Mukteshwar recorded a maximum temperature of 32.2o C, the highest in 10 years. This was close to the all-time high record of 32.5o C which was observed on June 16, 2012.
Meteorologists attribute this steep rise in temperature to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation as the pre-monsoon rainfall activity remained almost absent and erratic.
Increased Extreme Rainfall Frequency
Apart from the rainfall getting increasingly erratic there has been a sharp increase in heavy rainfall incidences resulting catastrophic flood and landslide incidences as were experienced in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2019 and 2024.
Modelling work of Neetu Tyagi and others suggests increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in Uttarakhand by more than 5° C, together with a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation and increase in the maximum temperature and precipitation during the monsoon period by the end of the century (2070–2099). This is to result in increased frequency of extreme rainfall events during the monsoon period, which is likely to have significant impact on the biodiversity and livelihood of the people by the end of the century.
Forest Fires
According to an IPCC Report high mountain areas are witnessing an increase in the number of very warm days/nights while the number of extremely cold days/nights are decreasing.
Despite forest fires often being man-made, there does exist a direct relationship between extreme heat and forest fires. In Uttarakhand, the forest fire season typically begins in late March and lasts for around 11 weeks.
Extended dry period in 2024 paved the way for rise in temperature as well as accumulation of dry leaves. All these factors led to faster dissemination of fire, covering larger area and resulting in tree cover loss. Magnitude and seriousness of the problem can well be assessed from the very fact that assistance of Indian Air Force had to be sought for dowsing the fires on numerous occasions during the forest fire season.
Black Carbon
Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere due to incomplete combustion of fossil fuels in motor vehicles and aircraft exhausts, bio-fuel, and biomass. It absorbs more light and emits infra-red radiation that increases the temperature – thus facilitating fast melting of glaciers. Forest fires as also large number of tourist vehicles reaching the higher Himalayan reaches are a major source of black carbon in the region, which is testified by the observed sharp rise in black carbon concentration at Chirbasa, at an altitude of 3600 m and Bhojbasa, at an altitude of 3800 m during summers that coincides with sharp rise in the number of persons visiting Gaumukh.
Research undertaken by the Scientists of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology confirms that black carbon is spreading to the snow-laden peaks of the Himalayas and has increased by two and a half times to 11800 nanograms/cubic meters and is acting as a catalyst to melt the glaciers which is accompanied by gradual upward shift of the tree line, and thus initiating a habitat crisis.
Unrestricted Tourism – A doubled Edged Sword
Facilitated by wider roads and improved air connectivity tourists and pilgrims are reaching the Higher Himalaya destinations in large numbers. Uncontrolled tourist influx has resulted in unplanned construction of tourism related infrastructure in eco-sensitive zones, waste generation and improper disposal.
Rather than trying to curb the numbers reaching these destinations, the state government has started to project this as the success of its promotional initiatives. This is resulting in the environmental degradation of this pristine Higher Himalayan region, which is to unfold in a major crisis in times to come.
Depleting Reservoir Capacity
On an average, every km of new road constructed in the mountainous terrain results in 18 thousand cu m of debris and felling of 50 trees. Every year approximately 800 – 1000 km new road is constructed in Uttarakhand which simply translates in to 1.5 – 2.0 crore cu m of debris and felling of 40-50 thousand trees.
Despite sincere efforts of planned disposal of this debris, significant portion reaches the river bed from where it is ultimately transported to the reservoirs thereby having a negative impact on their productive life. Coupled with reduced discharge of the rivers due to glacier recession this could herald a major energy crisis that is to hard hit industrial and other economic activities in the state.
Disaster Management in Uttarakhand
Having witnessed the brunt of disaster just before the creation of the new state – Madhyamaheshwar and Malpa landslides in 1998 and Chamoli Earthquake in 1999 – Uttarakhand became the first state to have a separate Department for Disaster Management – the first state of the Indian Union to do so. It at the same time set up an autonomous institution – Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre (DMMC) – for disaster management related mass awareness, capacity building and policy advocacy. As provided by the Disaster Management Act 2005, Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority (USDMA) was subsequently setup to manage all disaster management related affairs in the state.
With the passage of time, largely seduced by enormously high media visibility and opportunities of high level interactions, USDMA despite not having any effective presence at the grassroots level took over the reins of disaster response coordination, much to the comfort of the responding agencies, and slowly drifted away from its actual mandate of mass awareness, capacity building and policy advocacy.
This is exemplified by the simple fact that no effort has ever been made in the previous 5 – 6 years to disseminate the results of vulnerability and risk assessment studies so meticulously undertaken under the World Bank supported program for earthquake, landslide, flood, flash flood and industrial hazards, even to key government stakeholders leave apart general public.
Way Forward – A Call for Bold Action
Uttarakhand stands at the crossroads. The challenges posed by climate change and its impact on disaster management are immense, but these are not insurmountable. Bold and decisive action is therefore needed to build a resilient future.
Stringent Emission Norms
Stricter emission standards for vehicles and industries are essential to curb pollution, and reduce black carbon emissions. This has to be accompanied by suitable monitoring and compliance mechanism together with stringent punitive measures.
Ban on Diesel vehicles
Banning personal diesel vehicles in the hilly terrain could significantly reduce vehicular pollution, together with growing black carbon menace.
Ban on Vehicles
Notification of no vehicle zones, particularly in hill towns and along routes earmarked for trekking and cycling would provide better experience to the visitors and they would be incentivised to stay for longer duration in the hills. This needs to start with immediate withdrawal of vehicles from Kedarnath that is located in the pristine Alpine zone in close proximity of a number of glaciers.
Eco Tax
Implementing an eco-tax on tourists and pilgrims could generate revenue for environmental conservation and sustainable development initiatives, and in the long run it is to result in a win – win situation for all the stakeholders.
Controlled Tourism
Limiting the number of tourists and pilgrims in ecologically sensitive high-altitude areas is crucial to protect the fragile ecosystem. The focus should shift from maximizing visitor numbers to promoting sustainable tourism practices.
Numbers vs Night Halts
With travel time cut short drastically, the state needs to focus on people staying in the state for longer by developing new destinations and avenues of engaging the visitors. Rather than sheer numbers state needs to highlight its success by the number of days tourists stay in the state. This is sure to provide gainful economic activities to the masses.
Forest Fire
Strengthening the Forest Department and investing in fire prevention and control measures are crucial to protect Uttarakhand’s forests and reduce black carbon emissions.
Debris disposal
Stricter and universally applicable regulations on debris disposal are needed to prevent environmental damage and protect water resources.
Revitalising USDMA
It needs to be understood that rather than policing, disaster risk reduction is all about empowering and making masses aware to ensure voluntary compliance of disaster safety measures. Empowering communities and promoting disaster preparedness being the key to building resilience, the USDMA needs to refocus its efforts on capacity building, mass awareness, and policy advocacy, and ensure that the summary of all the studies carried out by it are aggressively disseminated in plain and simple Hindi through various modes. Qualified, trained and experienced manpower needs to be engaged for this, and adequate measures be taken to keep them motivated, engaged and dedicated.
A Shared Responsibility
Addressing the challenges of climate change and disaster management in Uttarakhand requires a collective effort. The government, communities, and individuals – all have a role to play. It’s time for Uttarakhand to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future for all.
Conclusion: A Time for Action
The impacts of climate change are already being felt in Uttarakhand. The time for complacency is over. It’s time for bold action, innovative solutions, and a shared commitment to protect this beautiful and vulnerable region. The future of Uttarakhand, and indeed the entire Indo-Gangetic plains, depends on it.
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