Landslide is a commonly occurring phenomenon in all the mountainous regions of the world, with even the developed countries like Japan not spared. What however follows in these countries is quite different from what we practice. Rather than shifting the blame on abnormal rains and trying to manage landslides based on weather forecasts, the reasons that turn the commonly occurring hazard into a disaster are investigated, and appropriate structural and non-structural measures are put in place to ensure that landslides don’t result in a disaster in future.
Not appreciating that the landslides occur due to the interplay of a number of factors with water only facilitating downslope movement, we simply tend to blame heavy rains for landslide incidences, and there therefore seems no need of implementing any dedicated intervention, apart from strengthening the meteorological instrumentation including Doppler Radar, AWS, ARG, and the others. Impact forecasting by the concerned agencies without scant idea of the rainfall thresholds for different slopes and geological conditions, has only reinstated this belief.
In the process we tend to forget that even the best weather forecasts cannot prevent landslides, and dedicated measures, particularly non-structural ones, are a must for effective management of landslide hazard. We therefore remain plagued with the menace of slope instability, and with most scientific and technical institutions including the designated Nodal Agency for landslides, shying away to avoid controversy, there seems no respite in near future.
In the process we have done nothing really positive, but portrayed rainfall as the villain. “Heavy rainfall warning”, “Red alert sounded”, “Response agencies on high alert”, “Administration fails despite warning”, and “Disaster management a white elephant” thus remain often repeated headlines during every monsoon period.
Situation however had not always been the same, and it seems that with advancement of science and technology we have stopped appreciating the importance of nature’s bounty. Irrespective of religion, culture, colour, belief, and ethnicity people everywhere have a tradition of welcoming rains. Unable to understand the reasons of rainfall variability often resulting in floods and droughts, people attributed these to divine wrath, and adopted strategies to propitiate nature and the gods to ensure adequate rainfall. In Hindu mythology Indra, the king of the gods, is worshipped as the rain god while Hawaiians, Greeks, Tibetans, Shintos, Filipinos, and Mesopotamians respectively worship Lono, Hyades, Kalden, Kuraokami, Oden, and Adad.
Moreover, both the rain bearing clouds and rain have at the same time aroused love and romantic feelings, and this continues from Kalidas to Prasoon Joshi, Irshad Kamil and Majrooh Sultanpuri. William Shakespeare, Charles Dickens, Thomas Hardy, Iris Murdoch, and Clarie-Louise Bennet are amongst others who have written eloquently on rains.
Rainy season is also associated with a number of festivals; Harela, Teej, Raksha Bandhan, Kalyavatara, Putrada Ekadashi, Ganesh Chaturthi, Onam, Janmashthami, Hemis, Behdienkhlam, Sao Joao, Ganga Dussehra, Naga Panchami, Govatsa, Shravani Purnima, Rishi Panchami, and Adi Perukku. Moreover the month of Shravan of the Hindu calendar is considered particularly auspicious, and marked by Kanwar Yatra that culminates with the offering of holy water to Lord Shiva on Shivaratri.
Moreover, favourable rains have a positive impact on the economy as around half the farmlands in the country are rainfed, and around 70% of annual rainfall is received in the monsoon period making it crucial for around 263 million farmers together with 800 million people living in the villages, who are largely dependent on agriculture. Moreover, agriculture accounts for about 18% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and a failed monsoon has a ripple effect on the country’s growth and economy. Normal to above-normal and well-distributed monsoon however boosts farm output and farmers’ income, thereby increasing the demand for consumer and automotive products in rural markets.
Scenario is no different in Uttarakhand but then agriculture in the state is overwhelmingly dependent on rains with irrigation facilities restricted to the plains. At the same time net sown area, particularly in the hill districts of the state, has been depleting continuously due to high rates of migration. Moreover, with insignificant increase in the demand and prices of the traditional food grains, together with increasing menace of wild animals hill farmers have no major incentive for continuing agricultural pursuits that are highly labour incentive.
With farming operations pushed to the sideline, the impact of rainfall variability on economy has been lessened significantly and thus masses in the hills are not particularly concerned over depleted rainfall. They however wish to avoid rain-induced inconvenience, and for this they seem willing to have no-monsoon seasonality.
Moreover, having witnessed major disaster incidences during the monsoon period of 2010, 2012 and 2013 rains and ensuing disasters in Uttarakhand still retain the potential of hitting the national headlines.
After the devastation of June 2013 that resulted in massive destruction across the province with human life loss count surpassing 4000, the officials responsible for rainfall forecasting were successful in creating the notion that they had timely warned the state, and inaction of the state was responsible for the losses.
What was actually communicated was however a general forecast of heavy rains over the entire state. On its part the state failed to assertively refute this assertion, and therefore the masses not understanding the difference between forecast and warning were given to believe that disregard to the warning caused the disaster, and consequent loss of life and property. Put alternatively this strengthened popular belief that action on rainfall forecast can avert disasters in the region. This is the reason why even those with scant knowledge of Doppler Radar capabilities attribute 2013 disaster to lack of Doppler Radar in the region, and often consider installation of more Doppler Radar as the end of all disaster related woes of the region.
No one, not even the media that has been enthusiastically wooing the cause of Doppler Radar in the region, however cares to investigate the impact of one commissioned recently at Mukteshwar in Nainital district. May be this does not have the potential of making a major headline in the media.
Despite rainfall related warnings often hitting media headlines, it is worth noting that to be designated a warning in actionable terms the communication must have precise, and reliable information with regard to (i) location, (ii) time, and (iii) magnitude of the incidence referred to. Without these attributes the communication can best be called an advisory or forecast, and certainly not a warning.
One needs to appreciate that general area (Seismic Gap zone) and magnitude (>8.0 on Richter Scale) of future earthquake being known, the communication with regard to these cannot be called a warning unless we have clear idea of the time when the earthquake is to strike.
Based on the rainfall forecast one can at best choose to carry along an umbrella or a raincoat but not cancel her travel plan. Similarly the state can alert the response agencies (what it actually does), but cannot certainly order evacuation of population or initiate emergency action.
It is to be noted that after the disaster of 2013 it has become a routine practice to issue weather forecasts coloured in the hue of warning. These however fail the litmus test of warning, and are actually forecasts based on which state cannot actually initiate resource mobilisation or evacuation, or else it would result in panic amongst the masses, and at the same time masses would loose faith on the communications from the state.
With 2013 disaster still alive in mass memory, reports of disaster or potential disaster in the region have capability of hitting headlines. So-called warnings are therefore quickly grabbed by the media that is otherwise starved of major breaking news. The media thus aggressively rallies around these warnings that provide enough scope for showcasing data and footage of the previous disasters. All this has resulted in a fear psychosis amongst the masses wherein rain bearing clouds as also rains are portrayed as villains, and not welcome. Yielding to the media pressure, rather than analysis and action, the state machinery has also started to overreact to the rainfall forecasts.
One however needs to realize that rains have always been looked upon as being auspicious by the people of the region, and portraying these as being unwanted is to be detrimental to the cause of water harvesting, and recharge zone management as also landslide management. Moreover water availability in the region is totally dependent upon atmospheric precipitation; the monsoonal rains sustain the aquifers till the winters and these are replenished by winter snowfall and rains. But for rains it would be hard to satisfy drinking water demand of the region sustainably.
As regards the weather forecasts, it is worth noting that these have not improved spatially and district continues to remain the unit despite real time data from 107 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), 28 Automatic Rain Gauges (ARG) and 16 Snow Gauges, calibrated by 25 surface field observatories (combination of single Stevenson screen, optical rain gauge and AWS) of the state is being provided to the agencies responsible for issuing better forecast.
At this juncture it is advised that the agencies (i) concentrate on improving spatial accuracy of the weather forecasts, (ii) desist portraying forecast as warning, (iii) loudly communicate the limitations rather than fine-printing these like insurance policy conditions, (iv) undertake thorough post-landslide investigations to identify causes not of slope instability but of losses, (v) devise and implement non-structural measures for averting landslide-induced losses which could include putting in place landuse regulations, debris disposal policy, mitigation measures in case of slope modification and the like, together with (vi) landslide treatment measures where safety of population and traffic is threatened, and rehabilitation is not cost-effective.
On its part media should desist diverting the attention of the authorities by chasing the warnings in a bid to hit the headlines, and pay attention on measures that could reduce the menace of landslides. Positive stories, no doubt do sell.
In the end it needs to be remembered that landslides are facilitated but not caused by rains, and unless we seriously probe the causes and undertake mitigation measures to address the identified causes, we are bound to continue bearing the burnt of landslides.
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