Like other regions around the Himalayan arc, Uttarakhand Himalaya is vulnerable to multiple hazards that include earthquake, landslide, flash flood, forest fire, avalanche and drought, but unlike other regions Uttarakhand Himalaya has not witnessed any major seismic activity since 1 September 1803 Garhwal Earthquake, and is located in the seismic gap of 1905 Kangara and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes.

From the perspective of a disaster manager, Uttarakhand Himalaya is faced with twin challenges.

Firstly, prolonged seismic calm has led to complacency, and both masses and the government authorities have become casual towards seismic safety, which is in fact the biggest threat not only for this region but also for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains extending up to the National Capital Region (NCR) and the same has been highlighted by a number of scientific researches.

Secondly, largely due to their frequent occurrence, particularly during the monsoon period, the disaster management authorities seem to have diverted their entire attention towards landslides and flash floods. In reality these efforts  are also largely focused only on gathering information and quickly preparing incident reports related to rescue and relief efforts, rather than paying the required and due attention towards prevention and mitigation even of these hazards.

The shifting sands of disaster

In the previous some years landslide and flash flood incidences have however not remained confined to monsoon period.

Devastating Varuavrat and Ramolsari landslides of 2003 and 2005 took place respectively in post- and  pre-monsoon period.

In the year 2021, Dhauliganga valley was flooded during the winter season while Kumaun region was devastated by landslides and floods in the month of October after the recession of the monsoon.

Moreover, in 2023 Joshimath in Chamoli district of Uttarakhand witnessed ground subsidence at an alarmingly fast pace in the month of January.

Dwindling freshwater reserves

This changing pattern of disaster incidences is often attributed to climate change, whose real and mammoth but often ignored impact is on the freshwater reserves that are dwindling fast with the recession of glaciers.

It needs to be appreciated that the water of the Himalayan rivers sustains the population, as also agricultural and industrial activities in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains and depleted water availability is to adversely affect electricity generation, drinking water availability and agro-industrial operations, besides having a negative impact on quality of life and sanitation for a large population of our nation.

Unpredictable Rainfall – A New Normal

Even though average rainfall may not have  reduced significantly, both spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the Himalayan region has changed enormously, with heavy rainfall incidences becoming increasingly common.

Together with this both winter and pre-monsoon rainfall have become less and erratic.

Winter rainfall in the region is often delayed and this results in reduced retention of snow in the higher reaches, which is largely responsible for negative mass balance of the glaciers.

This has adverse impact on glacier health, groundwater recharge and productivity of horticultural crops that are deprived of the required chilling hours, and are subject to early flowering.

Absence of pre-monsoon rainfall at the same time results in abnormal heat and forest fires.

Soaring Temperatures – A Burning Issue

Erratic pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormally high temperatures not only in the plains but also in the higher elevations and this is often accompanied by forest fires.

2024 witnessed this all across, wherein day time  temperatures crossed 40^o C on several days, and normal life in almost all the districts was crippled by severe heat waves.

In June 2024, Dehradun witnessed temperatures above 40^oC for 11 consecutive days from June 9 to June 20. Meanwhile, in May, temperature in the city soared above 40^oC on eight days.

Situation was abnormal even in the mountains, and on at least five occasions in May, the hill station of Mukteshwar in Nainital district recorded temperatures of nearly 30^o C, the threshold of a heatwave in the hilly terrain. The month of June had been the harshest for the town as it saw maximum temperature settling above 30^o for 10 days and on June 15, Mukteshwar recorded a maximum temperature of 32.2^o C, the highest in previous 10 years. This was close to the all-time high record of 32.5^o C which was observed on June 16, 2012.

Meteorologists attribute this steep rise in temperature to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation as the pre-monsoon rainfall activity remained almost absent and erratic.

Increased Extreme Rainfall Frequency

Apart from the rainfall getting increasingly erratic there has been a sharp increase in heavy rainfall incidences resulting catastrophic flood and landslide incidences as were experienced in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2019 and 2024.

Modelling work of Neetu Tyagi and others suggests increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in Uttarakhand by more than 5° C, together with a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation and increase in the maximum temperature and precipitation during the monsoon season by the end of the century (2070–2099).

This is to result in increased frequency of extreme rainfall events during the monsoon period, which is likely to have significant impact on the biodiversity and life support strategy of the people by the end of the century.

Forest Fires

According to an IPCC Report high mountain areas are witnessing an increase in the number of very warm days/nights while the number of extremely cold days/nights are decreasing.

Despite forest fires often being man-made, there does exist a direct relationship between extreme heat and forest fires.

In Uttarakhand, the forest fire season typically begins in late March and lasts for around 11 weeks.

Extended dry period in 2024 paved the way for rise in temperature as well as accumulation of dry leaves. All these factors led to faster dissemination of fire, covering larger areas and resulting in tree cover loss. Magnitude and seriousness of the problem can well be assessed from the very fact that assistance of Indian Air Force had to be sought for dowsing the fires on numerous occasions during the forest fire season.

Black Carbon

Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere due to incomplete combustion of fossil fuels in motor vehicles and aircraft exhausts, bio-fuel, and biomass. It absorbs more light and emits infra-red radiation that increases the temperature – thus facilitating fast melting of glaciers.

Forest fires as also large number of tourist vehicles reaching the higher Himalayan reaches are a major source of black carbon in the region, which is testified by the observed sharp rise in black carbon concentration  at Chirbasa, at an altitude of 3600 m and Bhojbasa, at an altitude of 3800 m during summers that coincides with sharp rise in the number of persons visiting Gaumukh.

Research undertaken by the Scientists of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology confirms that black carbon is spreading to the snow-laden peaks of the Himalayas and has increased by two and a half times to 11800 nanograms/cubic meters and is acting as a catalyst to melt the glaciers which is accompanied by gradual upward shift of the tree line, and thus initiating a habitat crisis.

Unrestricted Tourism – A doubled Edged Sword

Facilitated by wider roads and improved air connectivity tourists and pilgrims are reaching the Higher Himalayan destinations in large numbers. Uncontrolled tourist influx has resulted in  unplanned construction of tourism related infrastructure in eco-sensitive zones, waste generation and improper  disposal.

Rather than trying to curb the numbers reaching these destinations, the state government has started to project this as the success of its promotional initiatives. This is resulting in the  environmental degradation  of  this pristine Higher Himalayan region, which is to unfold in a major crisis in times to come.

Depleting Reservoir Capacity

On an average, every km of new road constructed in the mountainous terrain results in 18,000 cu m of debris and felling of 50 trees. Every year approximately 800 – 1000 km new road is constructed in Uttarakhand which simply translates in to 1.5 – 2.0 crore cu m of debris and felling of 40-50 thousand trees.

Despite sincere efforts of planned disposal of this debris, significant portion reaches the river bed from where it is ultimately transported to the reservoirs, thereby having a negative impact on their productive life.

Coupled with reduced discharge of the rivers due to glacier recession this could herald a major energy crisis that is to hard hit industrial and other economic activities in the region.

Disaster Management in Uttarakhand

Having witnessed the brunt of disasters just before the creation of the new state – Madhyamaheshwar and Malpa landslides in 1998 and Chamoli Earthquake in 1999 – Uttarakhand became the first state of the Union of India to have a separate Department for Disaster Management.

It at the same time set up an autonomous institution – Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre (DMMC) – for disaster management related mass awareness, capacity building and policy advocacy.

As provided by the Disaster Management Act 2005, Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority (USDMA) was subsequently setup to manage all disaster management related affairs in the state.

With the passage of time, largely seduced by enormously high media visibility and opportunities of high level interactions, USDMA despite not having any effective presence at the grassroots level took over the reins of disaster response coordination, much to the comfort of the responding agencies, and slowly drifted away from its actual mandate of mass awareness, capacity building and policy advocacy.

This is exemplified by the simple fact that no effort has ever been made in the previous almost a decade to disseminate the results of vulnerability and risk assessment studies so meticulously undertaken under the World Bank supported Uttarakhand Disaster Recovery Program  for earthquake, landslide, flood, flash flood and industrial hazards, even to key government stakeholders leave apart general public.

Way Forward – A Call for Bold Action

Uttarakhand stands at the crossroads.

The challenges posed by changing climate and its impact, not only on life support strategy and  well bing of the masses but also on disaster management are immense and the situation is further complicated by the threat of the real big earthquake that draws close with each passing moment.

Despite this the challenges are not insurmountable.

Bold and decisive actions backed by strong political will are therefore required to build a resilient future.

Stringent Emission Norms

Stricter emission standards for vehicles and industries are essential to curb pollution, and reduce black carbon emissions.

This has to be accompanied by suitable and strict monitoring, and compliance mechanism together with stringent punitive measures to ensure compliance.

Ban on Diesel vehicles

Ban on personal diesel vehicles in the hilly terrain has the potential of significantly reducing vehicular pollution, together with growing black carbon menace.

It is therefore required that thew movement of personal diesel vehicles be restricted to lower altitudes  and not allowed in Higher Himalayas.

Ban on Vehicles

Notification of no vehicle zones, particularly in hill towns and along routes earmarked for trekking and cycling is to provide better experience to the visitors and this is to incentivise them to extend their stay in the hills.

However, this needs to start with immediate withdrawal of vehicles from Kedarnath that is located in the pristine Alpine zone in close proximity of a number of glaciers.

Eco Tax

Implementing an eco-tax on tourists and pilgrims could generate revenue for environmental conservation and sustainable development initiatives, and in the long run it is to result in a win – win situation for all the stakeholders.

Controlled Tourism

Limiting the number of tourists and pilgrims in ecologically sensitive high-altitude areas is crucial to protect the fragile ecosystem.

The focus needs to shift from maximising visitor numbers to promoting sustainable tourism practices.

Numbers vs Night Halts

With travel time cut short drastically, the state needs to focus on people staying in the state for longer duration by developing new destinations and avenues of engaging the visitors.

Rather than sheer numbers state needs to highlight its success by the number of days tourists stay in the state.

This is sure to provide gainful economic activities to the masses.

Forest Fire

Strengthening the Forest Department and investing in fire prevention and control measures are crucial to protect Uttarakhand’s forests and reduce black carbon emissions.

Debris disposal

Stricter and universally applicable regulations on debris disposal are needed to prevent environmental damage, protect water resources and retard the pace of sedimentation of the reservoirs.

Earthquake Safety

The political leadership needs to take the earthquake threat seriously as it has the potential of rolling back gains of decades of developmental endeavours. Building bye laws and compliance thereof are necessary, but policing alone is not going to bring forth positive results.

Aggressive and sustained media campaign is therefore required to b e undertaken to make the masses aware of the risk they and their families are exposed to and this needs to be followed by providing simple, cost effective and easily accessible solutions for bringing forth seismic resilience.

At the same time it is highly required that the results of previous studies carried out for assessing vulnerability and risk be made public and utilised for mass awareness and adoption of  disaster  safety measures.

To relieve thee burden of disasters on public exchequer the state can promote disaster  insurance and thus could be made mandatory for commercial and public utilities.

Revitalising USDMA

It needs to be understood that rather than policing, disaster risk reduction  is all about empowering and making masses aware to ensure voluntary compliance of disaster safety measures.

Empowering communities and promoting disaster preparedness being the key to building resilience, the USDMA needs to refocus its efforts on capacity building, mass awareness, and policy advocacy, and ensure that the summary of all the studies carried out by it are aggressively disseminated in plain and simple Hindi through various modes.

Qualified, trained and experienced manpower needs to be engaged for this, and adequate measures be taken to keep them motivated, engaged and dedicated.

A Shared Responsibility

Addressing the challenges of climate change and disaster management in Uttarakhand requires a collective effort.

The government, communities, and individuals – all have a role to play. It’s time for Uttarakhand to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future for all.

Conclusion: A Time for Action

The impacts of climate change are already being felt in Uttarakhand.

The time for complacency is over. It’s time for bold action, innovative solutions, and a shared commitment to protect this beautiful and vulnerable region.

The future of Uttarakhand, and indeed the entire Indo-Gangetic plains, depends on it.